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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=DE-AT link="#467886" vlink="#96607D" style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>Dear members and friends of the VCEE,<br><br>You are invited to attend the VCEE seminar on Friday November 8, 2024, from 10:30 to 12:00 hrs Vienna time. <br><br>The seminar takes place in lecture hall 17 (2<sup>nd</sup> floor), <i>at Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1.<span style='color:red'><br></span></i><br>We will have one speaker: Christoph Becker,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>Webpage: <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.awi.uni-heidelberg.de/en/professorships/behavioral-finance-and-contract-theory/dr-christoph-k-becker&sa=D&source=calendar&usd=2&usg=AOvVaw0bT8Xvyd9ohgaB-m2FVINd" target="_blank">Dr. Christoph K. Becker - AWI (uni-heidelberg.de)</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><br></span><span lang=EN-GB style='font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>Here is more information about the talk:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='margin:0cm'><b><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>Title: </span></b><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='margin:0cm'><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>Personalizing Probabilistic Survey Scales</span></b><span class=jtukpc><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style='margin:0cm'><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p style='margin:0cm'><b><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>Abstract:</span></b><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;mso-ligatures:none;mso-fareast-language:DE-AT'>Central bank surveys often gauge households' inflation expectations using probabilistic questions with scales centered at zero inflation. The design of this scale heavily impacts the obtained beliefs. Our first results demonstrate how altering this scale — by shifting, compressing, or expanding it — can significantly affect mean forecasts, uncertainty, and disagreement. We also show how centering scales at zero distorts responses in actual surveys. In two large-scale experiments added to the Bundesbank’s BOP-HH, we find that shifting the response scale to better align with households’ current expectations improves response quality along multiple lines. The greatest improvements occur when the scale is centered on each household’s point forecast. This approach also avoids the need for scale adjustments when inflation varies and helps reduce panel conditioning effects. Finally, we find a close link between reported inflation uncertainty and the width of the scale and explore further personalization of the scale to counteract this effect.</span><span lang=EN-GB style='font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><br><br><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>If you are interested in meeting after the seminar (meeting slots of 30’) you can register via this link:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><a href="https://nuudel.digitalcourage.de/Cx8VVxMzCFsIKFiF">https://nuudel.digitalcourage.de/Cx8VVxMzCFsIKFiF</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>Best regards,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-GB style='font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>Sylvia<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></body></html>