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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><span lang="DE">Dear members and friends of the VCEE,<br>
<br>
You are invited to attend the VCEE seminar on Friday April 28, 2023, from 10:30 to 12:00 hrs Vienna time.
<br>
<br>
The seminar takes place in Seminar Room 14 (2nd floor) at Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1.<br>
<br>
We will have one speaker: <b>Marina Agranov</b> (Caltech), <span class="jtukpc"><a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://agranov.caltech.edu/&sa=D&source=calendar&usd=2&usg=AOvVaw2MnY6J3Wcc6QkaUHK3oE7I" target="_blank">https://agranov.caltech.edu/</a></span><br>
<br>
Here is more information about the talk:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><b><span lang="DE">Title: </span></b><span lang="DE"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span class="jtukpc"><b><span lang="DE">Deciphering Suboptimal Updating: Complexity, Sequencing, and Framing</span></b></span><span class="jtukpc"><span lang="DE"> (with Pellumb Reshidi)</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p><b><span lang="DE">Abstract:</span></b><span lang="DE"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><span class="jtukpc"><span lang="DE">We aim to investigate the underlying reasons for the failure of individuals to adhere to Bayes' rule when updating their beliefs. We do so in a framework in which individuals often exhibit
Base-Rate neglect. While our findings offer insights into the mechanisms that lead to Base-Rate neglect, they have broader implications for belief updating in general. We decompose the departure from Bayesian updating into three elements (a) framing and context,
(b) timing of information delivery, and (c) complexity of the decision task at hand. We address the impact of task complexity by introducing a novel notion of complexity, wherein tasks that entail more nonlinear calculations are deemed more complex. In a series
of controlled experiments, we alter all three elements and estimate the gap between the theoretically predicted and reported posterior beliefs. Through additional treatments, we further explore our notion of complexity and find empirical support for this notion.
Moreover, we examine the possibility of counteracting one bias with another and find that the optimal way of releasing information depends on the underlying complexity of the environment.</span></span><span lang="DE"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="DE"><br>
If you are interested in meeting after the seminar (meeting slots of 30’, room no 05.330) you can register via this link:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span lang="DE"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p><b><span lang="DE"><a href="https://nuudel.digitalcourage.de/jyzlNKV8yOjthK4U">https://nuudel.digitalcourage.de/jyzlNKV8yOjthK4U</a></span></b><span lang="DE"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span lang="DE"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p><span lang="DE">Best regards,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span lang="DE">Nora Brandes<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="DE">--<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ligatures:none;mso-fareast-language:DE">Mag. Nora Brandes<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ligatures:none;mso-fareast-language:DE">Department of Economics<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ligatures:none;mso-fareast-language:DE">University of Vienna<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ligatures:none;mso-fareast-language:DE">Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ligatures:none;mso-fareast-language:DE">1090 Vienna, Austria<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ligatures:none;mso-fareast-language:DE">Phone: +43 1 4277 37404<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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