[VCEE Seminar] REMINDER: VCEE Seminar with Christoph Becker - Invitation, November 8

[Mailing list of the VCEE seminar series]

Dear members and friends of the VCEE,

You are invited to attend the VCEE seminar on Friday November 8, 2024, from
10:30 to 12:00 hrs Vienna time. 

The seminar takes place in lecture hall 17 (2nd floor), at
Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1.

We will have one speaker: Christoph Becker,

Webpage: Dr. Christoph K. Becker - AWI (uni-heidelberg.de)
<https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.awi.uni-heidelberg.de/en/professor
ships/behavioral-finance-and-contract-theory/dr-christoph-k-becker&sa=D&sour
ce=calendar&usd=2&usg=AOvVaw0bT8Xvyd9ohgaB-m2FVINd> 


Here is more information about the talk:

Title: 

Personalizing Probabilistic Survey Scales

 

Abstract:

Central bank surveys often gauge households' inflation expectations using
probabilistic questions with scales centered at zero inflation. The design
of this scale heavily impacts the obtained beliefs. Our first results
demonstrate how altering this scale - by shifting, compressing, or expanding
it - can significantly affect mean forecasts, uncertainty, and disagreement.
We also show how centering scales at zero distorts responses in actual
surveys. In two large-scale experiments added to the Bundesbank's BOP-HH, we
find that shifting the response scale to better align with households'
current expectations improves response quality along multiple lines. The
greatest improvements occur when the scale is centered on each household's
point forecast. This approach also avoids the need for scale adjustments
when inflation varies and helps reduce panel conditioning effects. Finally,
we find a close link between reported inflation uncertainty and the width of
the scale and explore further personalization of the scale to counteract
this effect.

 

If you are interested in meeting after the seminar (meeting slots of 30')
you can register via this link, one slot (15:30-16:00) is still available:

https://nuudel.digitalcourage.de/Cx8VVxMzCFsIKFiF

 

Best regards,

Sylvia

 

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